2011, I feel, was a relatively unremarkable year from an economic perspective. As I posted last year, 2011 was not much different from 2010.

But while I have a few moments, here are my predictions to usher in the New Year.

1) Barack Obama will be re-elected. Let’s face it, if the economy recovers, this will be all but assured.

2) There will not be a double dip recession. If there is a double dip recession before election day – which I sincerely doubt – my first predictions will be shot.

3) Unemployment will drop below 8%. Again, economy.

4) I will post twice a month. At least.

I know, short post. More to come in January. Times two.

Herman Cain supporters no doubt need only point to Ginger White and say: consider the source. She has filed a sexual harassment claim with her employer about ten years ago, declared bankruptcy, has been evicted numerous times, had a restraining order against her for stalking, and sued for libel and defamation. Surely Herman Cain could do better. That said, the Cain Train is likely derailed and (I believe) unlikely to get back on the political fast track for this presidential election.

In the meantime, the new guy on top: unlikely Newt Gingrich. One can only wonder if he will be the next one up on the chopping block. Think: wack-a-mole.

In the meantime, I leave you with this gem from Jon Stewart. I would embed this if I could figure out how, but in the meantime, click the link and watch. It’s only five minutes.

I understand the motivations for Black Friday shopping. It’s almost a cultural pastime that is practically heralded as a holiday in and of itself. Many people are probably more aware of Black Friday than they are of the start of Advent. In recent years, stores all throughout the country close their doors (and reinforce them with metal rebar) the day before Thanksgiving as they prepare for the onslaught of frenzied shoppers camped outside and anxious to pillage the bounty inside.

From a strictly economic perspective, Black Friday is generally a losing proposition for those wanting to score the big ticket items: TVs, computers, and other electronic widgets. If one arrives at a Best Buy in Anywhere, USA at precisely 5AM, I am assured that any of the door buster item has already been purchased at 5:01AM. The alternative – to wait in line – is also generally a losing proposition unless one comes with camping gear, sterno, blankets, hot chocolate, and company (the latter is of vital importance. Misery loves company). Even then, waiting ten hours to save $200 sounds miserable. Sleep is worth at least $20/hour. Yes, I am speaking from first-hand experience. Last year, I camped outside Target with my dad and sister to score a 42″ LCD TV for $298. It’s mounted in the garage now with all the pomp and circumstance that accompanies hanging a trophy buck in the man cave. Was it worth it? Only with the right company.

This year, however, many stores will be opening their doors at 12:01AM, a minute after Thanksgiving Day.

There was a time, I’m told, where most stores were only open six days a week. The purpose, it was said, was to allow people to spend time with their families. It was called: a day of rest. A blue law. Now, a store not opened on a Sunday is the exception than the norm. With all the hustle and bustle of modern life, the only days where one can guess that a store will be closed is on a federal holiday. Even then, exceptions exist. This year, stores are pushing against the limit of when doors will open. Midnight is the new 5AM.

For a store employee, Thanksgiving becomes synonymous with “Thank God I have a job.” For a consumer, this means no waiting through the wee hours of the night. Of course, this also means possibly skipping the Thanksgiving Day dinner to land a spot in line. Or, quite possibly, it could require pushing up Thanksgiving Day dinner to finish early enough to make it in front of the store. At the very least, Americans should consider holding the turkey if they plan on shopping afterward.

As I sit back, I wonder: with everyone lining up earlier and earlier – has the frenzy to scoop up the best deal taken place of the family shared Thanksgiving Day turkey? If so, how is this negative and what, if anything, should be done about it?

Comments appreciated.

I was completely disenfranchised with “Maverick” McCain who seemed to shift his position to the right much more when he was running for office. Even putting Mormonism aside – which a portion of Americans cannot do – Romney’s east coast governing sends shivers down many small-government conservatives.

Now comes Herman Cain touting his 9-9-9 plan. Never mind the plan not being thoroughly vetted and him not having any foreign policy experience. He continues to hold high numbers in the polls. I personally think that if he is elected, the GOP will be solidly thumped in the general election. Cain’s 9-9-9 plan is catchy, but that’s exactly what it is – more of a catch phrase rather than a meritorious, plausible program. But he seems to be capitalizing off the slogan. This morning, while reading the Drudge Report, I came across this advertisement.



If this is the best the GOP has to offer, I submit that November 2012 will be Obama’s election to lose. Even though much hay has been made in the tabloids that no sitting president has won reelection when unemployment has been above above 7.2% with the exception of Reagan. Low approval numbers are also not in Obama’s favor. As mentioned by the Washington Post:

At 43 percent approval in a Gallup poll conducted Oct. 28-30, Mr. Obama recently referred to himself as an “underdog” — with good reason. Of all the presidents since World War II whose job-approval scores were lower than 50 percent one year before Election Day, only one went on to win a second term.

The exception – President Nixon.

But with the circus of candidates in the Republican party, Obama doesn’t need low-employment numbers or high approval numbers. The cards are still in his favor.

Try as I might, I can’t see him being the GOP candidate. That he’s garnered so much popularity and success with his dark horse status is indicative of the overall discontent that the Americans have displayed toward a potential Obama replacement.

And then there’s Mitt Romney.

He hasn’t been able to generate the enthusiasm to energize the field, but he’s as close as we can come to a generic, bland, Republican candidate.

If Mitt Romney, already the de facto choice for Republican connoisseurs does secure the nomination, he’ll have the advantage of already being thoroughly vetted. Additionally, he can probably win the a portion of the independents. On the other hand, Obama’s political machinery likely has ads already produced and ready to run in case Romney won the candidacy four years ago.

The big question is not whether Mitt Romney will be palatable to the Republican party. Republicans, it seems, would rather have bland if the alternative is not eating. The big question is whether, despite Romney’s blandness, he will have the Mitt-mentum to carry him into the Oval Office.

Any significant swings GOP debate tonight only mark the fluidity of the race.  At the very least, Perry will be worth watching.  He was heralded as the cat’s meow when he first announced his candidacy, and then he tried to debate.  And then  conservatives took a look at his immigration policy.  Amazingly, virtually all the popularity Perry lost, Herman Cain gained.  Herman Cain, has his own issues.  Jon Stewart makes well sure that everyone knows about those too.  While most people are not enthused with Romney, he only needs to focus on not pulling a Howard Dean.  I also wouldn’t joke about being unemployed either.

Listening to the radio on the way in to work today, one disenfranchised voter from New Hampshire didn’t really feel a whole lot of excitement toward any of the candidates.  With primary voters decidedly undecided, one is left to wonder whether the eventually GOP candidate will be received as enthusiastically as Sarah Palin.

Steve Jobs, the leader of Apple, Inc.

Yesterday, while driving home from work, my iPhone started buzzing.  I signed up for “breaking news” text alerts from AzCentral (perhaps inadvertently because I haven’t found them particularly newsworthy, yet I haven’t bothered to turn them off).  Imagine the shock when I read that Steve Jobs, had passed away.  His death was not particularly unexpected as he had battled with pancreatic cancer since 2003.  His health seemed to turn for the worse when he resigned as Apple’s CEO in late August.  Even with that, I was among many that thought he would likely return at the helm after a period of months.  Even the anemic photo that appeared sometime in September depicting Jobs as gaunt and frail could be dismissed as an anomaly or something expected in the course of cancer treatment.  Not everyone believed that the picture was a precursor to his final exit.

As recently as October 4 when Apple announced the new iPhone 4S, some pundits and many Mac-heads expected Steve to make a guest appearance to announce the revised iPhone or provide some words of reassurance that Apple’s best years still lay ahead.  Alas, this was not the case.  I would not be surprised if Jobs himself lay on his bed and watched the successful keynote.  Perhaps, that keynote allowed him some modicum of closure.  For him, that was his last chapter in a book he charged Tim Cook, the new CEO, with writing.

Of course, this is all speculation.  I have no special knowledge not possessed by the general public.

Steve was a giant that completely revolutionized computers, music, and technology.

I’ve been part of the Mac faithful since the very early 90′s when my dad walked in from school and brought back the Mac Classic (which later evolved into the iMac).  Even when Apple entered the “dark period” of the mid-1990s and the company faltered, our family continued upgrading: the Macintosh Performa, and later the Power Mac 6500.  Oft-criticized by a couple of close friends that had “unparalleled” computer games that were incompatible with my Mac, I couldn’t switch platforms (probably because I had no money, and my dad bought the computers.  I didn’t have a say in it.  I bought or downloaded what few games I could.  Oregon Trail,  Bolo,  Stuntcopter, Command & Conquer, and dozens of now-defunct titles).

I can’t claim that I should somehow feel worse because I’ve been with Apple longer than the majority of consumers, which, by the way, started purchasing Apple products in the last ten years.  It’s just that Steve Jobs had always exuded confidence in his products and the direction of the company.  He developed a cult following that captivated the consumers and both intrigued and frustrated his competitors.  He even strong-armed the entire music industry to fit within the Mac environment.

CEOs lead companies.  Steve Jobs did not fit the ordinary mold of a CEO.  He did not lead the wildly successful computer-turned-technological-giant company so much as he embodied the company whose stock shot up 7000% since championing Apple out of the dark ages.  It seemed that people were loyal to Steve first, Apple second.  For years analysts and shareholders worried about the lack of succession plan if Steve was unable to lead the company he once founded.  It wasn’t until recently that Apple announced its plan about how specifically it would move forward in a post-Steve Jobs world.

Now the time has arrived and with it the challenge to relentlessly innovate walking in part of the shoes of Steve but also progressing in a new, but hopefully equally successful direction.

As I sit with my iPhone at my side and type on my Macbook, I can’t think of a better platform I would rather write this post.  To this, I thank you Mr. Jobs.

So what I have below my response to a satirical editorial by Will Durst.  Mr. Durst is self-proclaimed as America’s Top Political Satirist.  In late-August, he wrote an article, “Mister Muzzle and Nuzzle.”  You can find it here (scroll down to August, 27, 2011).  It’s a great article – very sarcastic.  On a whim I penned a reply in the same style.  It’s not quite my style, but I enjoyed the opportunity to step out of my literary skin and try a response in the same manner.

Now technically I wrote this reply in August – so this today is only a quasi September post.  Will there be another?  Stay tuned.

In response to “Mister Muzzle and Nuzzle” by Will Durst

Mr. Durst’s laugh-and-bash editorial of Rick Perry’s Texas-style entry into the GOP presidential race largely ignores the reality; even a generic-flavored Republican from the candidate buffet is a more palatable alternative than Obama’s medicine.  I didn’t care for Obama’s healthcare pill, and I didn’t care for the elixir of injecting greenbacks into Wall Street.  Last I checked, America is still hooked up to an I.V. monitored by S&P and Moodys.  And if those monitoring stations indicate anything other than a clean bill of health, the Feds launch an investigation.  At least Biden will celebrate the boost in payroll numbers.

Let’s face it, America is waking from its Obama fairytale with a huge hangover.  This isn’t like quite the Cinderella story topped with sugarplums and happily ever after endings that we envisioned – not when nearly 1 in 10 can’t get a job.  Apparently census workers are seasonal positions.  Check back in ten years Detroit.  Unbeknownst to Obama, most of America can’t take weeklong vacations every month or afford to have working wives make celebrity appearances on Extreme Makeover: Home Edition.  But hey, every job has its perks.  I get my jollies after I punch out at after work, sit down and watch stocks jump like yo-yos.  What a rush; my net worth jumps around more than Tigger on a pogo-stick.   Talk about entertainment.  Do we still need another four years of Obama in his Washington bubble?

Who cares about numbers though– Social Security isn’t a Ponzi-scheme.  I’m glad Big Government will be there to support me.  Thanks Obama.  I like spending money too.  Let’s do that cash for clunkers thing again.  Yeah, I know the program cost taxpayers about $24,000 for the $4,000 I saved on my new Kia Rio.  And yeah, it’s a foreign car.  So what?  The new Chevrolet Equinox our Labor Secretary drives around Washington in was assembled in Canada.  At least it feels good driving a Chevy.  Looks good in photo shoots too.

Remember those trillions we pumped into the economy?  And those bailouts?  Thank God for those new jobs.  Like $500,000 equals one job?  That’s a Black Friday deal if I ever saw one.  But math wasn’t my strong suit, so I guess me and Washington have one thing in common.  But hey, we can build more industrial plants in Singapore; they need work too.  It’s the cost of doing business.  And that Nobel Peace Prize is looking mighty fine.  Whoops.  I forgot about those wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.  Wait.  Not Libya.  “Kinetic Military Action.” How’s that for linguistic jujitsu?

Let’s not be too hard on Obama.  He has a country to run.  Without his clairvoyant government intervention into nearly every. single. aspect. of our lives, private markets would surely collapse.  Re-election takes front and center too.  Move over Bachmann, Perry, Romney, Cain, Paul, America – Obama has a bunch more goodies coming.  I don’t think I sent my thank you card for the last Christmas present.  You know, that whale of a healthcare bill Obama-Santa gave us all on Christmas Eve, 2009.  It’s the gift that keeps on giving.  Won’t forget that one anytime soon, no sir-ree.  I’m totally looking forward to my upgraded MVD-style doctor office visits.  Where’s my Medicare card?

What other dollops have me salivating this year?  Oh, oh – immigration reform!  Yeah!  That’ll seal up this Hispanic vote.  Don’t touch Social Security or Medicare.  Takes care of elderly.  Drop “G-d” around enough and pick up some of those crazy Christian southern folk too.  Hmm. Why do so many conservatives want to run against Obama?  Can’t they tell Obama offers something for everyone?  Just leave the milk and cookies on the counter.

The question NoDebtMBA posited was whether the utility of the prostitution outweighed the psychological, health, moral, and career consequences of the “arrangement.”  The post garnered a fair amount of attention with some commentators ranging from the apathetic, and the-end-justifies-the-means, to my comment providing the counterweight to the other comments.

I’m not blind to the reality of the situation; women (and to a much lesser extent, men) have ventured into the undercurrent of the gray market where sex and money changes had with regularity.  The participants of such dalliances self-police themselves to maintain the existence of the market.  To a certain extent, the entire sub-culture mirrors the complex drug cartels operating in Mexico.  One difference, however, is that unlike the drug cartels, virtually anyone – focusing primarily on women – can participate on a small scale and operate as frequent or infrequently as the case may be.

The issue I have with the entire situation is that it is farcical  to divorce morality from economics.  If economy was valued on the basis of the net benefit to its market participants, it would ignore the deeper societal implications and create absurdity.  Morality, and its inverse, immorality, permeates society in a zero-sum arrangement.  I often hear the refrain, “what is the harm in X.”  Often the argument is flawed because it centers on a specific transaction as a contractual arrangement where the benefit or harm to society is ephemeral.  However, the development of a healthy society is the lifeblood that permits the marketplace to exist.  Society, through the legislature, makes public policy decisions rooted in morality that benefits the community as a whole.  To protect society, we criminalize rather than regulate certain activities: purchasing drugs, child prostitution, and murder (and yes, even murder-for-hire).

Encouraging alternative debt financing “arrangements” does not provide a net benefit to society.  For one, it takes commoditizes one’s body and reduces an act, oft-considered sacred and places a number upon it.  Consider the regular situation in which married John engages the sexual services of Jane, an unmarried woman.  Specifically looking at the financial arrangement, benefit is incurred upon both individuals but harm is incurred too, on John’s wife.

The notion that certain plausible situations would legitimize the scandalous situation is illusory in itself.  As I’ve mentioned before, sex is more than physical.  And it’s not only an economic transaction.

Update: I was watching FOX news last night and they ran a story on “Sugar Daddies.”  Topical, but relevant.  Find it here.